Will ICC arrest warrants speed up Gaddafi's downfall?

When there is nowhere to go, it's time to turn to the skies?

By Nehal El-Sherif, dpa =

   Cairo (dpa) - The issuing of arrest warrants for Moamer Gaddafi by the International Criminal Court (ICC) is interpreted by some as a sign that the days of the Libyan leader are numbered.

   But many doubt that it will have any effect.

   The decision by the court in The Hague prompted celebrations among  Libyan rebels in their stronghold of Benghazi. International rights groups expressed satisfaction at the fact that the law was catching up with those who thought they were immune to accountability.

  Gaddafi, who has ruled for 42 years, has clung to power during the more than four months of armed struggle with the opposition and the 100 days of NATO airstrikes.

   In theory, the warrant should change the political landscape of the conflict, driving Gaddafi into a corner and making him feel more isolated. It also limits the number of countries where he might flee in exile, since countries that are member-states of the ICC will be required to arrest him should he visit.

   According to NATO, the warrants - which also target Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam, and his intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi - shows that "time is rapidly running out" for the Libyan leader.

   Shortly after the decision was announced, ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo told Arabic broadcaster Al Arabiya that he believed Gaddafi would be arrested before the end of the year.

   While Libya is not a member of the ICC, the opposition's political body, the Transitional National Council (TNC), has promised to cooperate with the ICC and arrest him.

   Many, however, consider the arrest warrants useless.

Gaddafi in disguise?

   Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir was indicted in 2009 in connection with alleged atrocities in the western Darfur region, yet he remains free and travels internationally - casting doubt on whether Gaddafi's warrant will change anything.

   States that have not signed up to the ICC are unlikely to reject Gaddafi as a result of the warrant - just as they did not change their stance on welcoming al-Bashir.

   Several of the African and Latin American countries where Gaddafi enjoys good relations remain options for the embattled leader.

   An additional fear is that the arrest warrant could act as an obstacle to finding a peaceful solution to the conflict, and thus discourage Gaddafi from relinquishing power.

   The ICC's decision came after rebels said they were getting closer to Tripoli, where Gaddafi has tight control.

   On Sunday, they reached the town of Bir al-Ghanam, roughly an hour's drive from the capital - the rebels' first major advance after weeks of fighting government forces in the western Nafusa Mountains area.

   Rebels moving from the eastern cities also said they were close to Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte.

   And Abdul-Fattah Yunis, who leads the opposition fighters, said rebels had formed secret cells in Tripoli and "launched spectacular secret operations."

   And yet, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), "Gaddafi already made clear he intended to stay until the bitter end before the ICC process was set in motion, and his son's February vow to 'live and die in Libya' speaks for itself."

   "It beggars belief that a dictator who has gripped power for over 40 years would be frozen in place by this arrest warrant," said Richard Dicker, the international justice director at HRW.