Arab uprisings give way to uncertainty in 2012
By Nehal El-Sherif, dpa
Cairo (dpa) - By the end of 2011, three North African countries will have ousted their leaders while a fourth, Yemen, appears on the verge of forcing out the president, although by more political means.
Yet other countries appear to be trapped in a conflict between the people and their regimes, in a phase that - despite an increasing death toll and continuous protests - seems static.
"Change is the magic word of the year, which started with anger and finished with uncertainty," said Basma al-Husseini, manager of Al-Mawred al-Thaqafy, a cultural exchange centre in Cairo.
Within the region, the outcome in Syria is the most uncertain. After nine months of protests and the death of at least 5,000 people, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad does not seem to be giving up power soon.
"Al-Assad is finished historically, but he can last well into 2012," said Sultan Al Qassemi, a commentator on Arab affairs based in the United Arab Emirates.
He said al-Assad's remaining length of time in office depended on how desperately his local and international supporters were "trying to make a point."
Arab countries have put pressure on Damascus to end the violence, but are not backing all uprisings across the region.
In the kingdom of Bahrain, they stopped short of supporting pro-democracy protests.
Rallies in Oman and Kuwait were swiftly contained by the rulers, while the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sent its troops to help the Sunni Bahraini royal family end protests led by the Shiite majority.
"Right now, the Gulf is the only bloc working closely trying to preserve one other," Al Qassemi said, adding that he did not expect any changes in the Gulf region in the "next two to three years."
In Yemen, the GCC intervened with a political solution to the crisis that gave outgoing president Ali Abdullah Saleh immunity.
However, the power transfer deal did not quell the protests, with activists still camping in the squares, calling for the persecution of Saleh.
Transitions in Tunisia and Egypt have made greater progress but, to the disappointment of many, the post-revolution phase has been marked by protests, violence, and apparent power struggles between political groups.
"I'm most optimistic about Tunisia," said Florian Kohstall, a German political researcher based in Egypt. "The elections for the constitutional assembly were very transparent and marked the beginning of a new era."
In October, Tunisia became the first "Arab Spring" country to hold elections, which were described as "remarkably free and fair."
"Contrary to Egypt, elections in Tunisia can be interpreted as a real break with the old system," added Kohstall, who heads the Cairo office of the Free University of Berlin.
Tunisia has seen less violence than Egypt, Libya, Syria or Yemen. By comparison, the Egyptian transition was marred by intermittent clashes between protesters and police forces, as well as attacks on the country's Christian minority.
In Egypt, some activists believe polls will take their revolution to a new political level. Others fear it will give legitimacy to the ruling military council, appointed by the ousted leader Hosny Mubarak.
A first round of elections was frowned upon after initial results showed big gains for the Islamists, notably the Muslim Brotherhood's newly founded Freedom and Justice Party. Similarly, in Tunisia the Islamist party Ennahda won the highest share of the vote.
There are fears that Libya could follow Saudi Arabia in adopting a strict interpretation of Islamic law, after the country's interim leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil said in September that any "law that violates the Sharia is null and void legally."
Geographically located between Egypt and Tunisia, Abdul Jalil's reassurances of maintaining a moderate society in Libya have not removed such concerns.
Al Qassemi believes that Islamist gains are a positive step, whether in Egypt or Tunisia.
"They have been an unknown entity for the people for eight decades, now they will leave the realm of the mysterious and enter reality. They need to be allowed to fail," Al Qassemi said.
However, according to him, it was too early to judge which of the Arab countries would reach their goals first. "This is not an overnight issue," he said.
While some observers remain optimistic about the future following the Arab uprisings, Lebanese columnist Mohamed al-Sammak warned that people who have revolted once can do it again, if their goals are not achieved.
"Through such transition, it is normal to go through difficult and complicated times," he said. "Yet, it is important that it does not become a new disappointment, because if that happens, it would set the stage for a new set of movements seeking change."
