Will ICC arrest warrants speed up Gaddafi's downfall?

When there is nowhere to go, it's time to turn to the skies?

By Nehal El-Sherif, dpa =

   Cairo (dpa) - The issuing of arrest warrants for Moamer Gaddafi by the International Criminal Court (ICC) is interpreted by some as a sign that the days of the Libyan leader are numbered.

   But many doubt that it will have any effect.

   The decision by the court in The Hague prompted celebrations among  Libyan rebels in their stronghold of Benghazi. International rights groups expressed satisfaction at the fact that the law was catching up with those who thought they were immune to accountability.

  Gaddafi, who has ruled for 42 years, has clung to power during the more than four months of armed struggle with the opposition and the 100 days of NATO airstrikes.

   In theory, the warrant should change the political landscape of the conflict, driving Gaddafi into a corner and making him feel more isolated. It also limits the number of countries where he might flee in exile, since countries that are member-states of the ICC will be required to arrest him should he visit.

   According to NATO, the warrants - which also target Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam, and his intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi - shows that "time is rapidly running out" for the Libyan leader.

   Shortly after the decision was announced, ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo told Arabic broadcaster Al Arabiya that he believed Gaddafi would be arrested before the end of the year.

   While Libya is not a member of the ICC, the opposition's political body, the Transitional National Council (TNC), has promised to cooperate with the ICC and arrest him.

   Many, however, consider the arrest warrants useless.

Gaddafi in disguise?

   Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir was indicted in 2009 in connection with alleged atrocities in the western Darfur region, yet he remains free and travels internationally - casting doubt on whether Gaddafi's warrant will change anything.

   States that have not signed up to the ICC are unlikely to reject Gaddafi as a result of the warrant - just as they did not change their stance on welcoming al-Bashir.

   Several of the African and Latin American countries where Gaddafi enjoys good relations remain options for the embattled leader.

   An additional fear is that the arrest warrant could act as an obstacle to finding a peaceful solution to the conflict, and thus discourage Gaddafi from relinquishing power.

   The ICC's decision came after rebels said they were getting closer to Tripoli, where Gaddafi has tight control.

   On Sunday, they reached the town of Bir al-Ghanam, roughly an hour's drive from the capital - the rebels' first major advance after weeks of fighting government forces in the western Nafusa Mountains area.

   Rebels moving from the eastern cities also said they were close to Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte.

   And Abdul-Fattah Yunis, who leads the opposition fighters, said rebels had formed secret cells in Tripoli and "launched spectacular secret operations."

   And yet, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), "Gaddafi already made clear he intended to stay until the bitter end before the ICC process was set in motion, and his son's February vow to 'live and die in Libya' speaks for itself."

   "It beggars belief that a dictator who has gripped power for over 40 years would be frozen in place by this arrest warrant," said Richard Dicker, the international justice director at HRW.

Saudi women get behind the wheel to challenge driving ban

By Nehal El-Sherif

   Cairo/Riyadh (dpa) - Several Saudi women drove cars Friday - defying a ban on women driving in the kingdom, after they were inspired by uprisings in the region calling for more rights.

   Around 70 women drove their cars in the different parts of the kingdom, witnesses said, most of them were accompanied by a relative. No woman have reported encountering problems with security or the
religious police.

Source: http://twitpic.com/5dqlk4

   "I went to the market with my wife today, and she drove the car," Tawfik al-Saif from the eastern Dammam city told the German Press Agency dpa.

   Witnesses said they saw several women driving in Dammam streets.

   Some of the women posted pictures or videos of them driving on the internet, challenging authorities against driving restrictions supported by religious establishments in the oil-rich kingdom.

   Dozens of rights activists launched the Women2Drive campaign calling for mass driving on Friday to protest the ban.

   Although there is no law that bans women from driving, licenses are not issued to women - making it de facto illegal for them to drive.

   Activist Wajiha al-Howaidir said that around five women drove on the Riyadh-Jeddah highway and no one stopped them, even policemen passing them by did nothing.

   Al-Howaidir, however, was little disappointed as she had expected a higher turnout, but hoped more women will drive later in the day.

   "I decided today that the car is mine, and tomorrow my husband can take it back," wrote a woman, identified only as Maha, online.

   She had a 45-minute drive through Riyadh streets with her husband.

   A video showed a woman, wearing the face veil, driving and saying she will go to the supermarket and back. The clock on her mobile showed it was shortly after midnight on Friday.

  "All we want is to be able to finish our errands without depending on chauffeurs," she said. "I think society is ready to accept us."

   Rights group Amnesty International urged Saudi Arabian authorities on Thursday to lift the decades-old ban and "stop treating women as second-class citizens."

   The Women2Drive campaign gained international attention after one of the organisers, Manal al-Sharif, was detained on May 24 for 10 days for posting a video of herself while she was driving and urging other women to drive.

   According to Amnesty, al-Sharif was forced to sign a pledge that she would not drive again. Several other women who tried to follow in her footsteps also had to sign a similar pledge.

   In 1990, some 47 women took to the streets in 15 cars to defy the ban at that time. They were all arrested and severely punished.

   There have been other attempts to challenge the ban over the past 20 years, but they did not succeed in changing the rules in Saudi Arabia, which follows a strict interpretation of Islam.

   While Islam does not deny women equality in most areas of the law, Saudi Arabia remains the only predominant Muslim country that has yet to allow women the right to vote. Women also cannot travel without a male guardian, unless they are 45 or older.

   Saudi King Abdullah, seen as a political and social reformer, has promised to bring social changes to the country.

   However, he is unlikely to defy the country‘s senior clerics, as he needs their support for his ruling family amid ongoing unrest across the Middle East and growing calls for democracy and change.


Published on June 17, 2011 here, here , here and here

Arab tactics: Bailing out on friends to remain in power?

It's deja vu. We saw it in Egypt and we are now seeing it happen all over again in Syria.

Rami Makhlouf, a hated cousin for the Syrian president and a symbol of corruption in the country, announced he would quit business and take up charity work.

Makhlouf in front of a poster of Assad.

It is a reminder of when Mubarak's son, Gamal, resigned from his senior post in National Democratic Party. Safwat el-Sherif, the secretary general of the party and Mubarak's long-time confident, also resigned.

What does it mean? Is it really a concession for protesters? Does it really mean reform and change is being introduced in the country, or is it another move to deceive protesters and quell the rallies.

Egyptians were right (and smart of course;) when they were not convinced by the announcements, as are Syrians now who vowed to continue their protests.

Efforts by Syrian regime seem too little too late after over 1,300 civilians were killed. Such offers tells the world that the government underestimates the intellect of activists and people in the country as whole.

Why would they believe you now, when you had all the time before to prove your good intentions?

Makhlouf, is also the easiest member of the Assad's circle to get the role of the sacrificial lamb. He already angered thousands of Syrians when he told the New York Times in May that Assad’s government would fight to the end in a battle that could increase turmoil in the region and even lead to a regional war with Israel.

He is also only one of many who hold senior posts, monopolizing either businesses or government and military posts in the country.

If Assad wants to make concessions, then all those people, including his brother Maher, and his brother-in-aw Assef Shawkat, will have to leave their power.

But can Assad allow this?

Not likely, because without them, he will not be able to hang on to power. Though he has been in power for 11 years, Bashar, an optician, has been described as inexperienced politician, who is heavily supported by his extended family since the death of his father Hafiz al-Assad in 2000.

Can president Saleh go back?

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh left Sana'a for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia late Saturday. Activists were singing and dancing in the streets celebrating their great victory.

"Leave" and "departure" where the words most used in protests in Yemen (as well as in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Tunisia)

This is why the fact that he is out of the country made them rejoice.

Some people are still worried because neither he officially resigned nor did any from the government, especially his deputy who took charge after Saleh left to Riyadh, had made any announcements that Saleh is not in power anymore. On the contrary, they stressed the opposite.

However, is it really going to be hard for Saleh to go back, because it will make things worse in the country. The question would be if the Saudis will let him go back, or they will succeed in convincing him to sign the transfer deal, he refused three times before.

Fear of civil war amid growing tribal power in Yemen

By Nehal El-Sherif, dpa

   Cairo (dpa) - Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh was defiant as always in an audio message released after an attack on his presidential palace in the capital Sana‘a.

   However, his attitude left doubts regarding the official statements denying his injuries. Many noted that Saleh sounded short of breath.

   "Although the message was full of his usual cliches, the voice was  different," said Shatha al-Harazi, an opposition activist.

   "I expected, if he was indeed in good health, that he would appear on television, and the camera would be shooting him from every angle to make sure people know he is fine."

   The Yemeni government denied that Saleh had left for Saudi Arabia for medical treatment.

   However, the official SABA news agency reported that senior government officials injured in the attack, including the parliamentary speaker and the prime minister, were in the neighbouring kingdom for treatment.

   Saleh, who faces growing calls to step down after 32 years in power, was scheduled to address the nation earlier in the day. After his appearance was postponed for several hours, an audio speech was released on Friday night.

   The presidential palace was hit by two shells Friday afternoon. Security forces blocked all roads after the attack and there was an increased security presence at the military hospital, witnesses said.

   Fighting between government forces and opposition tribesmen has also widened and is expected to grow, after Saleh accused members of his own Hashid tribe of mounting the attack and vowed to go after the
perpetrators.

   Followers of Hashid leader Sadiq al-Ahmar, have been fighting security forces for around two weeks. But al-Ahmar‘s office denied any involvement in the incident.

   Online activists said they believed the incident was orchestrated by Saleh to make way for future attacks on protesters. The president has refused, three times, to sign a Gulf-brokered power transfer deal.

   "Unfortunately, it would be a lie now to say that all protests are peaceful. This can destroy what we worked for more than four months" al-Harazi said, as armed tribesmen fought security forces in both Sana‘a and the southern city of Taiz in support of the protesters.

   Many of the demonstrators are sceptical of that support for fear that growing tribal power could take the country to the opposite of what they are are calling for in protests that erupted early January.

   Al-Harazi says the revolution aims at limiting tribal power and at setting up a national reconciliation government. Activists fear that, if tribesmen win the battle against Saleh, the security situation could deteriorate and end in a tribal power struggle.

   "There is a great probability of such a power struggle, which will impose difficulties on the protesters. But if they continue their peaceful rallies, they will eventually be able to gain their cause," said Abdel-Bari Taher, a Yemeni political analyst.

   Fighting also escalated in Taiz, as armed tribesmen and members of the military, who have defected, attacked Saleh‘s security forces and were able to burn several tanks in the city.

   This allowed protesters to regain the Hurreya (Freedom) Square, where they were camped for months.

   A Taiz-based activist described the developments as "turning the peaceful protests into street fighting."

   However, others in Taiz remain hopeful about the future of the peaceful protests.

   "Young activists here see these developments as military fighting, fuelled by personal revenge. They still call for peaceful protests," Abdul Rahim, a doctor who has been involved in the protests said in a phone interview.

   "Most tribesmen announced they will not seek power after Saleh‘s ouster, and activists also accept their support, but refuse to say they are part of the revolution," he added.

   As violence drags on and the death toll rises, neither Saleh nor the opposition parties show any signs of wanting dialogue.

dpa
Published: June 4, 2011